Energy Price Forecast EU / Great Britain
GB carbon intensity ยท Public beta
Find hours with lower estimated electricity CO2
The cheapest hour is not always the lowest-carbon hour. Switch the GB forecast to CO2 to compare estimated carbon intensity alongside electricity prices.
Beta: new models and a growing live history. Forecasts are not guarantees.
England, Scotland and Wales only. Northern Ireland is not included.
What does gCO2e/kWh mean?
The unit expresses estimated grams of carbon-dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour of electricity. Lower values indicate a lower modelled carbon footprint per unit of electricity, not lower electricity use.
The GB series uses consumption-based lifecycle emission factors and includes modelled import effects. It is not NESO's official carbon-intensity series and should not be compared with a different accounting method as though the definitions were identical.
Forecasts and later observations
The forecast uses physical generation and demand estimates with neighbouring-market context. It does not use later realised generation as an input for future hours.
The values labelled as actuals are later modelled estimates from reported generation and imports, not direct CO2 measurements. They are only shown where the required inputs are complete. Missing neighbouring-market data can therefore leave gaps.
Known beta limitations
The long-lead forecast and live performance are still being evaluated. Import data, particularly for Ireland, can limit the completeness of later comparison values. Uncalibrated uncertainty intervals are not presented as reliable confidence bounds.
The 30-day comparison grows from live-issued forecasts. A sparse history at launch does not mean that missing forecasts were correct, and research backtests are not substituted for the live record.
Scope and timing
This beta covers England, Scotland and Wales, excluding Northern Ireland. Hourly values follow Europe/London. The CO2 view is an estimated planning signal, not an independently certified emissions statement.